2024 Week 16 Fantasy Football Rankings: WR

Brian Thomas Jr. angles to be a fantasy playoffs hero, Jauan Jennings looks to put his TNF face-plant behind him, and Drake London and Darnell Mooney bank on a quarterback change goosing their output.

Other positions: Quarterback | Running Back | Tight End/Kickers/Defense

Week 16 Receivers

WR Notes: Only Ja’Marr Chase has more WR fantasy points than Puka Nacua since Nacua returned in Week 8. … Nico Collins has maintained ceiling since returning from his hamstring injury, though the floor has gotten disappointingly low amidst the Texans’ offensive struggles. The Chiefs’ pass defense had been taking on water until getting Jameis Winston benched last week. Collins profiles more as a “hold the line” WR1 than week-winner for the fantasy semifinals. … With Dallas Goedert again sidelined, the Eagles’ narrow target tree got both A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith home for WR1 efforts in Week 15. It came in a tough Steelers matchup. The Commanders are not overly accommodating through the air, but they have been more giving than Pittsburgh. There’s a risk Philly pulverizes Washington on the ground. We’ll choose not to worry about that in what could end up a “sneaky shootout.” … Davante Adams is cooking, and Garrett Wilson is percolating. The Rams have some good defensive days … and more bad ones. Ignoring the run and hunting passing scores at the goal line, Aaron Rodgers is setting up a strong finish for his top two wideouts, especially old friend Adams.

Brian Thomas Jr. has posted new career highs for receptions in back-to-back weeks under difficult circumstances. The Raiders are not a difficult circumstance. It’s more about floor than ceiling, but BTJ is dominating target share like few in the business right now. … We would like to think Jaylen Waddle’s (knee) likely absence raises Tyreek Hill’s floor while enhancing his ceiling potential, but it’s just as likely Waddle’s modest amount of lost targets trickle down to Jonnu Smith or De’Von Achane. In general, this is not a great spot for the Dolphins’ passing attack. … There’s no way to sugarcoat Jauan Jennings’ Week 15 performance: It was elimination-worthy. It was also an aberration with a convincing alibi in a rainstorm no 49er seemed prepared for. The Dolphins are far from an amazing matchup. They also shouldn’t prevent the 49ers from returning to a more successful station-to-station approach. … That does not include Deebo Samuel. Although coach Kyle Shanahan seemed obsessed with “making it happen” last Thursday, Samuel has made it clear it won’t. He can’t move side to side at the moment. He’s a disappointing WR4.

Drake London had reached the end of the line with Kirk Cousins’ arm strength. How much better will it be with a rookie making his NFL debut in Week 16? Better enough that we are at least willing to find out in the WR2 ranks. London has always been a target commander. It’s just that the overall passing game volume has been too low, or the target share didn’t amount to much with a dead-armed QB. Michael Penix Jr. could change all that in a mouthwatering matchup with the Giants. … Penix’s presence under center also instantly revives Darnell Mooney, at least from an upside perspective. The Falcons will probably remain run-based, especially as a massive home favorite. But the looks Mooney sees will be more likely to turn into chunk gains than they were with Captain Kirk under center. … Jakobi Meyers tread water for 5/59 on nine targets in Aidan O’Connell’s (knee) Week 15 absence. “AOC” will return against the Jaguars, giving Meyers a WR2 floor and even a potential WR1 ceiling in a golden matchup with a defense handing out the third most WR fantasy points.

It’s back to Drew Lock for the Giants, who seem to be drawing a different horrific QB name out of each week. They all have the same directive: Get the ball to Malik Nabers as many times as possible. … There are enough plausible ways to keep Ladd McConkey away from Patrick Surtain to keep him in the WR2 ranks. Of more concern is the short week for a wideout nursing upper and lower-body injuries. That being said, McConkey is clearly doing whatever it takes to get out there as the Bolts look to avoid crashing out of the playoffs. … Jordan Addison’s spiked week potential has made him all but impossible to leave out of the top 24. Even Monday evening’s “down” effort featured seven catches on nine targets. Beginning to form the long-envisioned elite tandem with Justin Jefferson, Addison has a higher ceiling than fellow 1B Tee Higgins, though also a lower floor. … I’m having a hard time pulling the plug on Jerry Jeudy, who has been amongst the league’s 2-3 most productive wideouts the past two months. I’ll hedge — too generously — and keep him on the WR2/3 borderline. He needs only a few grabs for a big day.

Calvin Ridley isn’t really doing the things good receivers do, though he will now have more competent quarterback play in Mason Rudolph. What he lacks for Week 16 is a plus matchup. Indy has quietly become elite against the pass. … I began the week thinking there was no way I could keep Keenan Allen in the top 36. Then reality hit. The Bears can’t run the ball, and the Lions can’t defend the pass. Even with their injury issues, the Lions will be front-running in Chicago. Despite its continued ineffectiveness, there’s basically no way the Bears ditch their pass-heavy approach. … DK Metcalf’s ceiling has vanished as the Seahawks have gone more run heavy while focusing ever more attention on Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Metcalf is also frankly just not making the most of his opportunities. It’s almost impossible for DK’s spiked week drought to go on any longer, but the Vikings aren’t going to make life easy for knee-hobbled Geno Smith. If Smith can survive the blitz, there are fantasy points for the taking vs. Minnesota’s wideouts. … Things have gotten so dire in the Packers’ passing attack that no one can be WR3 trusted even for a Saints smash spot. That includes “Baby Deebo” Jayden Reed, who has been looking too much like the real Deebo of late.

Jalen McMillan hasn’t quite reached WR3 status, but he has locked down the No. 2 job in an aggressive, pass-first offense. The Bucs have seemed more willing to throw McMillan into the fire since Mike Evans’ return, and the rookie has been rewarding with solid statlines.