The Blue Jays were reportedly in on the bidding for both Juan Soto and Max Fried. They missed out on both, so they changed course and swung a deal to land a 26-year-old defensive wizard for their middle infield.
On Tuesday night the Blue Jays reportedly sent first baseman Spencer Horwitz and Minor League outfielder Nick Mitchell to the Guardians for second baseman Andrés Giménez and right-handed reliever Nick Sandlin.
BREAKING: The Toronto Blue Jays are finalizing a trade to acquire three-time Gold Glove-winning second baseman Andrés Giménez from the Cleveland Guardians, sources tell ESPN.
— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) December 10, 2024
As of publishing, neither team has confirmed the trade. Assuming it does go through as reported, what does the deal do for the fantasy value of the players involved and their new teammates? What does it mean for the playoff implications for the Blue Jays and Guardians? We’ll go over all that here.
How does this impact Andrés Giménez’s fantasy value?
In honesty, it doesn’t. We kind of know who Giménez is at this point and moving to Toronto doesn’t change that.
The 26-year-old broke out in 2022 when he hit .297 with a .837 OPS while playing elite defense. That allowed him to post a 6.1 WAR, but he’s been unable to match that over the next two years, posting OPS marks of .712 and .638 over the last two seasons with WARs of 3.8 and 2.8.
Giménez has finished somewhere between 64 and 76 runs scored in each of the last three years and driven in between 62 and 69 runs in each of those last three years. He also stole 30 bases in each of the last two seasons. He did all of that while hitting mostly sixth for the Guardians and, unless the Blue Jays decide to move George Springer or Bo Bichette down in the order, then Giménez is going to hit sixth for the Blue Jays as well.
However, last year, the Blue Jays scored fewer runs than the Guardians, had fewer RBI than the Guardians, and had a 101 wRC+ compared to a 100 for the Guardians. So Giménez will likely hit in the same spot in the order in a lineup that might be slightly weaker than the one he was in last season. Rogers Centre is a slightly better park for left-handed hitters, according to Statcast Park Factors, and is better for power in particular, so it’s possible that Giménez would see a slight park boost to offset some of the lineup regression.
At the end of the day, that keeps Giménez as a speed-first fantasy asset who will likely score between 65-75 runs and drive in between 60-70 but not be a major difference maker in either category.
How does this impact Spencer Horwitz’s fantasy value?
Spencer Horwitz is the other fantasy-relevant player in this deal, so we should discuss what the deal does for his value as well.
Just like Giménez, Horwitz is a left-handed hitter, and we already addressed that he’ll be moving to a slightly worse park and, in particular, a park that will be a slight downgrade for his power. Luckily, power is not his calling card. Horwitz is an elite on-base percentage asset with a tremendous feel for the strike zone and contact ability. He posted a higher walk rate in Triple-A in 2024 than a strikeout rate, and he had just an 18.4% strikeout rate in his first career 97 MLB games. He’s not a huge stolen base asset, but he did steal nine bases in 107 games in Triple-A in 2023 so maybe he can steal 5-8 bases if the Guardians let him run.
The bigger question is whether or not Horwitz earns a starting spot in the Guardians’ lineup. Horwitz graded out better defensively as a first baseman than second baseman, but the Guardians have Josh Naylor currently slated at first base with Kyle Manzardo set to fill in if Naylor should be traded. If the Guardians are okay with getting average defense at second base then they could slot Horwitz in as the starter there, and he could even hit second in a lineup ahead of Jose Ramirez, Josh Naylor, Lane Thomas, and Kyle Manzardo. That would be a major boost to Horwitz’s fantasy value, and he could be a tremendous source of batting average and runs scored with around 15 home runs and solid RBI hitting behind Steven Kwan.
It’s just all about him winning a starting job.
Who else has their fantasy value impacted by this deal?
Adding Spencer Horwitz could mean that Josh Naylor is on the way out, as has been rumored this offseason.
Naylor on the last year of his contract and could make around $12 million in arbitration after this season. Since Horwitz handles left-handed pitching better, Naylor feels likely to be traded and could be an interesting target for the Mets, Yankees, Cubs, Mariners, or any number of other teams that could put him in a better home ballpark. If Naylor were to be traded, Kyle Manzardo could slide in as the everyday first baseman with Horwitz splitting time at first base and designated hitter.
If Horwitz were to play second base, that would mean less playing time for Angel Martinez or Gabriel Arias if neither can beat out Brayan Rocchio at shortstop. However, the biggest name that could be impacted by this trade is Travis Bazzana.
Bazzana was the first overall pick in the 2024 draft after coming over from Australia and crushing it for Oregon State. Bazzana will be 22 years old next season and played all of 2024 at High-A, which means he should start the year in Double-A with a chance to push for MLB at-bats by the end of 2025 or early in 2026. By all accounts, Bazzana has the makings of a stud, and trading away Giménez means that the Guardians don’t have to try and find another position for their young stud to play.
On the Blue Jays side of things, Will Wagner and Orelvis Martinez were the likely candidates to start at second base in 2025, but that changes now. It’s possible that one of them could slide to the designated hitter or push Ernie Clement for the starting third base job, but their path to playing time just got a lot trickier for next season, which makes it harder to draft either one of them until we know more about how the Blue Jays lineup will shake out, You’d have to imagine the Blue Jays would have to miss out on plenty more free agents if either one of them is the starting designated hitter on opening day.
Why would the Cleveland Guardians make this deal?
Other than opening up space for Bazzana, this deal was all about financial flexibility. In 2023, Giménez signed a 7-year, $106,500,000 contract with the Cleveland Guardians. The last two seasons were the only two cheap seasons on Giménez’s contract, which means there is over $99 million remaining on his deal.
Ginenez contract
If the Guardians believe that Giménez is closer to the player who hit around .250 with a combined 24 home runs over the last two seasons and a sub-4.0 WAR, then moving off of that contract makes a ton of sense.
They also get to take a flyer on Nick Mitchell, who is a young player who acquitted himself well in his pro debut last year after being a fourth-round pick by the Blue Jays.
Why would the Toronto Blue Jays make this deal?
Realistically, the Blue Jays are desperate. They were supposed to be the future of the AL East just a few seasons ago but Bo Bichette has regressed, their pitching staff is aging, and they haven’t been able to find any impactful offensive pieces to join Vladimir Guerrero Jr. They need to convince Vlad Jr. to re-sign, but they also need to show that this roster and the promise it once held is not fully gone.
Giménez may not have altered his fantasy value much, but he’s a strong addition for the Blue Jays because he is a major upgrade defensively at second base and is a huge baserunning threat. No, he’s not going to change the course of a game with one swing, but he makes the defense immediately better and will put pressure on defenses when he’s on base. Considering the Blue Jays have the money to take on his contract, it seems like a smart move to make for Toronto, but one that likely needs to be the start of a string of offseason moves, not the main one.
Additionally, we should add that, even though he likely won’t be fantasy-relevant, Nick Sandlin is a strong reliever, who posted a 3.75 ERA with 68 strikeouts in 57 2/3 innings last season for the Guardians in 2024 and will make this Blue Jays bullpen a little stronger and deeper.