Ukraine’s ambassador says Australia should be wary of rumours put out by pro-Russian propagandists about the disappearance of Melbourne-born man Oscar Jenkins, saying it’s “50-50” if he is dead or alive.
Mr Jenkins, a 32-year-old teacher, was serving alongside Ukraine’s armed forces when he was captured by Russian forces last year.
Video of Russian forces interrogating Mr Jenkins after his capture surfaced just before Christmas.
Since then, Australian officials, media and online sleuths have scrambled to piece together what has happened to him and how he ended up on the front lines in eastern Ukraine.
Speculation intensified earlier this month as reports emerged Mr Jenkins had been killed – reports that several Ukrainian security and government sources told NewsWire at the time were unfounded.
In an exclusive interview with NewsWire, Ukrainian ambassador to Australia Vasyl Myroshnychenko said his government had no reason to believe Mr Jenkins was dead or alive and that it was “like 50/50”
Australian man Oscar Jenkins was captured by Russian forces in Ukraine last year. Picture: Screengrab
Ukrainian ambassador to Australia Vasyl Myroshnychenko told NewsWire Kyiv has ‘no confirmation’ on Oscar Jenkins’ status. Picture: Martin Ollman / NewsWire
Mr Myroshnychenko assumed the role of Ukraine’s envoy to Australia in April 2022, a little more than a month after Russia’s blitzkrieg-style invasion of his country.
Before that, he was an adviser to former Ukrainian defence minister Oleksii Reznikov.
Mr Myroshnychenko, who maintains close contact with the Ukrainian defence ministry, said there was “no confirmation” about Mr Jenkins.
“A rumour has become kind of news, and it has now a life of its own,” he said.
“I mean, he could be alive, he could have been killed, but there is no confirmation until Ukraine sees the body and has a hold of the body.
“This way we can confirm it, and we don’t have it.”
Warning ahead of Australian election
With an election looming, the uncertainty around Mr Jenkins’ fate has come at an awkward time for Anthony Albanese.
The Prime Minister has vowed to take the “strongest possible action” if any harm has come to Mr Jenkins.
But he is under pressure to get answers from Moscow, and, if Mr Jenkins is alive, any premature action could open his government up to ridicule from the Russian government and its small, but effective, network of social media pundits in Australia.
Mr Myroshnychenko said Russian authorities may not be deliberately concealing Mr Jenkins’ status, but said the ambiguity was convenient for the Kremlin.
“Everyone wants to see a strong reaction to that,” he said.
“We have two, three months from the elections, and this is where Russians see the weaknesses.
“They want to get in, manipulate and get involved, have an influence.”
Russia could be exploiting Oscar Jenkins’ disappearance to ‘manipulate’ the upcoming federal election, according to Mr Myroshnychenko. Picture: Martin Ollman / NewsWire
He said it “would be pretty logical, rational for them to go and find him and prove to the Australian government that he’s alive, if they want to do it”.
But he also said that if Mr Jenkins was dead, the Russian military would never own up to it.
“In the case that he was executed, they’d probably like to conceal it, and nobody’s going to find out the truth,” Mr Myroshnychenko said.
“The truth, because you can really get rid of the body, nobody’s going to find it.”
Russia has a long history meddling in Western elections.
Dating back to Soviet times, the Kremlin’s modus operandi has been to muddy the information environment and sow chaos rather than pushing a particular narrative.
More recently, Russian state media overtly spread false and conspiratorial claims about the failed Voice Referendum in 2023.
Canberra has given Kyiv north of $1.5bn-worth of aid to fight back against Russia, earning Australia a spot on Vladimir Putin’s list of unfriendly countries.
The Albanese government last month also announced it was reopening the Australian embassy in Ukraine.
At least 11,400 Ukrainians have found safe haven in Australia since the start of the full-scale invasion.
The mystery of Oscar Jenkins’ disappearance
NewsWire understands Mr Jenkins’ unit commander declared he was missing on December 16 after skirmishes near Makiivka, a tiny village on the Zherebets River in Luhansk Oblast.
The area has seen fierce fighting for months as Russian forces inch forward at an enormous human cost.
Mr Jenkins was a college lecturer in China before joining the Ukrainian military. Picture: Supplied
Mr Jenkins was serving in Ukraine’s 402nd Rifle Battalion of the 66th Mechanised Brigade. Picture: Supplied
Mr Myroshnychenko said it was “not a walk in the park” to find a body there.
“It’s not like you go there to the place and just find the body, and ‘here are the pictures for you’,” he said.
“It’s a place where people get killed in hundreds at the moment.”
The infamous video of Mr Jenkins’ interrogation appeared on pro-Kremlin social media channels on December 22.
Early uploaders claimed he was captured near Kramatorsk.
A map showing the village of Makiivka, near where Oscar Jenkins was captured. Picture: Google Earth
The Ukrainian stronghold is some 80km southwest of Makiivka in neighbouring Donetsk Oblast.
Russia has been trying to take the city since the start of the full-scale invasion, regularly bombarding it with deadly missile strikes in civilian areas.
Oftentimes pro-Russian accounts online spread false claims and misrepresent footage from the battlefield to make it seem like Moscow’s forces are doing better than they actually are.
Pro-Russian social media pundits started the claim Oscar Jenkins was captured near Kramatorsk. Picture: Google Earth
The same accounts that first started spreading Mr Jenkins’ interrogation video have recently begun sharing another clip showing dead soldiers stacked in the back of a truck.
A voiceover says in Russian: “That’s what’s going to happen to you. F***ing mercenaries. Australian f***ing mercenaries. We’ll f***ing kill you all. You’re all f***ing lying here. F***ing legion. You f***ing mercenaries. You’re all going to f***ing die here.”
Using reverse image search, NewsWire confirmed the video is actually four years old and shows soldiers killed in the 2021 flare up between Armenia and Azerbaijan in disputed Nagorno-Karabakh.
Russian propagandists have falsely claimed footage proves Mr Jenkins is dead. Picture: Screengrab
Footage purporting to show Mr Jenkins’ body is actually four years old and filmed in Nagorno-Karabakh. Picture: Supplied
But the voiceover is new and notably aligned with Kremlin rhetoric that members of Ukraine’s International Legion are mercenaries and therefore not protected by conventions on the treatment of prisoners of war.
At least 20,000 people from all over the world have joined up anyway.
Many of them are former soldiers from Kyiv’s Western allies.
It remains unclear how Mr Jenkins went from being a college lecturer in China to serving in the 402nd Rifle Battalion of the 66th Mechanised Brigade.
Though, his brothers-in-arms have hailed him as a good soldier with a sincere belief in the Ukrainian cause.