There was big news on Sunday regarding a left-handed outfielder. Yep, you guessed it, Michael Conforto signed a one year, $17 million deal with the Dodgers.
Here, I’m going to talk about who Conforto is as a player, what the Dodgers might see in him, and how the move impacts his outlook for fantasy baseball.
How Good is Michael Conforto?
Conforto has always been a solid hitter. The former first round pick burst on the scene with nine home runs and a 133 wRC+ in 2015 during the Mets’ unexpected World Series run. He hit two more home runs in the Series, too and it felt like a star was being born.
After a sophomore slump, he was beginning to assert himself as one of baseball’s best young players in 2017 with 27 home runs and a .279/.384/.555 slash line through 109 games. That is, until a scary left shoulder injury ended his season and sent his career off the tracks a bit.
He was still quite good in 2018 and 2019, just never back to the same level he was before the shoulder surgery.
Then, hamstring injuries began to pile up. Conforto missed some time at the end of the shortened 2020 season with a hamstring strain. He re-injured his hamstring at the beginning of 2021 – his contract year – and wound up scuffling to a .232/.309/.450 slash line.
His free agency was further complicated by the lockout that winter. Later, agent Scott Boras revealed Conforto had injured his right shoulder in an offseason workout. He underwent surgery and never wound up signing with a team.
Without many suitors the following winter, Conforto signed a two year, $36 million deal with the Giants and spent time on the injured list with three more hamstring strains as well as a calf, heel, and oblique injury over those two seasons.
When on the field, he was barely above average with a 105 wRC+ while with San Francisco. That came with nearly four times as many plate appearances against right-handed pitchers than left-handed pitchers, but Conforto’s production against each was practically (and surprisingly) identical.
How Good Can Conforto Be?
The Dodgers’ definitely see something in Conforto two straight lackluster seasons and his poor health record.
For starters, his bat speed progressively improved as last year wore on. This is one of the true benefits of having the new bat tracking data on Baseball Savant. Shoutout Jacob here for gathering it as it pertains to Conforto’s upside.
Michael Conforto is a great under-the-radar bat this offseason. Here are his xwOBAcon and 90th% bat speeds by month:
Apr: .370 (78.3)May: .442 (77.1)Jun: .386 (77.0)Jul: .322 (77.9)Aug: .520 (79.8) Sep: .499 (80.6)
Had a 137 wRC+ in those final two months. pic.twitter.com/REC6TF7dEP
— Jacob (@JacobE_STL) November 15, 2024
Correlation does not equal causation, but you could see Conforto’s quality of contact improve as his bat speed increased. That makes sense from a logical perspective, too, and it’s exciting that we’re about to get a second season of bat tracking data.
With this, Conforto’s power got back to a spot it hadn’t been at in years. His max exit velocity was 113.6 MPH, harder than he’d hit a ball since 2020. Also, he hit 11 balls harder than 110 MPH after not reaching that mark in 2023 and only doing so three times in 2021. And in line with the bat speed data, eight of his nine hardest hit balls came in August and September.
Conforto’s shoulder injury in 2022 was likely more serious that Boras let on and it wouldn’t be surprising if it took him a full season to rediscover his power stroke. If so, he could have huge home run and RBI upside in the Dodgers’ lineup.
How Does Conforto Fit on the Dodgers?
For as incredible as the Dodgers’ roster is, they’re severely lacking in corner outfielders.
Mookie Betts is preparing to play shortstop next season, so right now their outfielders besides Conforto are Andy Pages, Tommy Edman, James Outman, and Chris Taylor. That means Conforto likely starts the season as their every day left fielder, only missing time against left-handed pitchers.
Of course, the Dodgers are never done adding players and have already been linked with Teoscar Hernández for a possible reunion.
Even still, Hernández being a righty and Conforto a lefty means their playing time wouldn’t intersect much and it would most likely push the triumvirate of Pages, Outman, and Taylor to bench roles.
Conclusions
I probably like Conforto and this move more than I should at this point. The combination of his power gains and the Dodgers prominence with major league development makes me think this can be a slam dunk considering Conforto’s lowly draft cost.
He’s barely being taken as a top-500 player right now, in the same range as Johnny DeLuca, Bryan De La Cruz, and Ryan O’Hearn.
Sure, there’s ample injury risk, no stolen base upside, and an obvious platoon candidate, but I could easily see him being 20-30% better than league average with solid counting stats and a true weapon in leagues with daily lineup changes a la Joc Pederson and Matt Wallner.