The Coalition has made “some very heroic assumptions” to arrive at its $331bn nuclear plan price tag, according to Climate Change and Energy Minister Chris Bowen.
Peter Dutton will on Friday unveil the long-awaited costings for the Coalition’s plan for a net-zero nuclear-powered energy grid by 2050.
The figure was drawn from commissioned modelling by Frontier Economics.
The firm put the cost of the Albanese government’s renewables plan at $594bn last month.
According to its analysis, the Coalition’s plan saves on transmission infrastructure.
It also banks on consumption not increasing as rapidly as Labor has accounted for with its renewables plan.
Peter Dutton is finally unveiling costings for the Coalition’s nuclear plan six months after announcing the controversial policy. Picture: NewsWire / Martin Ollman
But the modelling is at odds with every other major assessment of renewable and nuclear options, including by the national science agency, which put the cost of atomic power at double that of renewables.
Reacting to reporting on the costings, which were dropped to just a handful of reporters, Mr Bowen said the Coalition had “just plucked a figure out of the air” in trying to double the cost of transmission infrastructure associated with the Albanese government’s renewables plan.
“They’re making it up as they go along,” Mr Bowen told the ABC, adding that “they have implied … that nuclear needs less transmission”.
“Spoiler alert, it doesn’t. You’ve still got to get the electricity around the country. I’m not sure how they’ll get the nuclear power into the grid, maybe by carrier pigeon if they’re going to assert if somehow you’ll need less transmission.
“They have had to make some very heroic assumptions here, and they have had to really stretch the truth to try to get some very dodgy figures.”
The Coalition has long claimed that its plan to take Australia nuclear would alleviate power bills for households.
But in its latest modelling, the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO) put the cost of a regular large-scale nuclear plant operating 90 per cent of the time at $155 a megawatt hour.
That could blow out to $252 a megawatt hour if only used 53 per cent of the time, according to the findings, which were produced in partnership with the national energy operator.
In contrast, the modelling estimated wind farms would produce electricity at $56 to $96 a megawatt hour, while solar farms offered an even better result at $35 and $62 a megawatt hour.
“What they have also done is very clearly in their costings of their own policy rejected the CSIRO and AEMO’s work,” Mr Bowen said.
“Now, CSIRO and AEMO have been talking about the cost of nuclear since way before we were in office, as being the most expensive form of energy available.
“I mean … what the Coalition is asking the Australian people to believe is this: that they can introduce the most expensive form of energy and it will be end up being cheaper.
“It won’t pass the pub test. It won’t pass the sniff test because it is just a fantasy.”
The Smart Energy Council has estimated the Coalition’s nuclear plan would cost between $116n-$600bn and only provide 3.7 per cent of Australia’s energy mix in 2050, based on experiences overseas and data from the CSIRO.
It worked out at about the same cost as delivering a near 100 per cent renewables mix by 2050.