The leaders of the Senate and the House budget committees got their first look at what could be the Oklahoma budget for fiscal year 2026 on Friday. The best way to describe that view is one word: flat.
Friday afternoon, the Oklahoma Board of Equalization certified an estimate of $8.662 billion in general revenue collections for FY26. Because the Oklahoma Constitution only allows the Legislature to spend 95 percent of that amount, lawmakers would have $8.229 billion for the next fiscal year.
That figure, records show, is about 1 percent lower than last year.
The BOE report also showed the state with $4.6 billion in savings. Those funds include more than $2 billion in the Constitutional Reserve Fund and the Revenue Stabilization Fund, about $1.36 billion in unspent funds and a total of $1.2 million in the Education Reform Revolving Fund and the FMAP Rate Preservation Fund.
Five of the seven-member board voted in favor of the estimates. Two members, state schools Superintendent Ryan Walters and Attorney General Gentner Drummond did not attend the meeting and did not vote.
Drummond said he didn’t attend because he didn’t trust the estimates.
In a media statement issued just as the meeting began, Drummond said he “lacks confidence in the budget numbers provided by the Stitt Administration” and called for increased legislative involvement in the process.“I come from the private sector, where you don’t play games with your budget,” Drummond said in a news release. “After sitting through several of these meetings, as well as briefings from the Governor’s chosen staff, I can tell you that I have no confidence in the accuracy or completeness of the Governor’s budget numbers.”
Drummond pointed to the December 2023 report as an recent examples of discrepancies and inaccuracies that eroded his confidence.
“In December of 2023, the Board of Equalization was told there would be $8,976,523,862 available for appropriation in FY25. By February, 10 days after the Governor laid out his budget priorities, that number had increased to $9,037,537,501,” Drummond said. “This increase bolstered the Governor’s argument for a proposed income tax cut.”
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Secretary of Agriculture Blayne Arthur attends a State Board of Equalization meeting at the Oklahoma Capitol in Oklahoma City, on Friday, Dec. 20, 2024.
“I’m all for lowering the tax burden on Oklahoma families, but let’s not play political games with the budget numbers,” Drummond said. “Let’s have an open and transparent process where the numbers don’t change just because the Governor wants them to.”Drummond’s announcement comes after being the lone “no” vote in the Board of Equalization meeting in February. At the time, Drummond’s office said his “no” vote was “a reflection of his lack of confidence in certain revenue estimates that were provided.”
While Drummond questioned the revenue estimates, House Appropriations Chairman, Rep. Trey Caldwell, a Republican from Lawton, said Friday’s estimates show state revenue flattening.
“My gut reaction is that we’re seeing a flattening of the explosive revenue growth that we saw for a couple of years,” he said. “We’re seeing (the revenue) being much more stable. I think we have a strong cash position.”
With more than $4 billion in reserve, unspent and savings, state lawmakers Caldwell said, are well prepared for any economic downturn “that may or may not occur in the near or far future.”
“I think the state is very strong in that position,” he said. “Though there may be some disagreements on what is readily available, I think we are well prepared. I think we have a lot of options for one-off or single year type infrastructure projects.”
Still, even with the flat revenue outlook, Gov. Kevin Stitt, a Republican, is expected to again push for a tax cut. Last year, during his state of the state speech, Stitt called for a .25 percent reduction in the personal income tax rate.
Friday, Stitt said he would make that call again.
State Auditor and Inspector Cindy Byrd attends a State Board of Equalization meeting at the Oklahoma Capitol in Oklahoma City, on Friday, Dec. 20, 2024.
While Stitt continues his push for a tax cut, a spokesman for the Oklahoma Policy Institute, a statewide think tank, said lawmakers should not view estimates “as a green light to move forward with future revenue cuts in the form of poorly planned tax cuts.”
“Lawmakers should modernize existing tax credits that put money into the pockets of the Oklahomans who need it most, while also protecting vital state revenue,” wrote Aanahita Ervin, a fiscal policy analyst for the institute. “These targeted tax credits are the most fiscally responsible way for lawmakers to deliver tax relief to Oklahomans who need them.”
“If lawmakers want to reverse Oklahoma’s high poverty rate, they should allocate our tax dollars to help everyday Oklahomans support their families,” Ervin wrote. “This includes investments in workforce training, job creation, child care, health care, and many other public services that have been shown to move the needle on poverty. These services remain underfunded in Oklahoma.”
For his part, Senate Appropriations Chairman Chuck Hall, a Republican from Perry, said the estimates give lawmakers an idea of the future budget outlook. Like Caldwell, Hall said the state hasn’t seen a great deal of growth. He said he was looking forward to the extra two months worth of data that will be collected by the BOE before its February estimate.
“Still I think what you’re seeing is the residual effects to the largest tax cut in state history last year,” he said. “I think you’re seeing the effects of a reduction in oil prices. I think you’re seeing sales tax collections are starting to go down.”
Hall said lawmakers would have to take the state’s economy, its current revenue sources and the impact of the Trump Administration into consideration as they develop the FY26 budget.
“There is still a lot in play until we get the February estimates,” he said.
Oklahoma Governor Kevin Stitt attends a State Board of Equalization meeting at the Oklahoma Capitol in Oklahoma City, on Friday, Dec. 20, 2024.
This article originally appeared on Oklahoman: Drummond: ‘No confidence’ in equalization board’s FY26 budget estimate