From left: Visa economist Travis Clark, UNC-Charlotte Economic Forecast director John Connaughton and Federal Reserve regional economist Laura Ullrich speak about North Carolina’s economic outlook during an NC Chamber forum in Durham on Jan. 14, 2025. (Photo: Galen Bacharier/NC Newsline)
DURHAM — North Carolina’s economic outlook remains solid, but Hurricane Helene’s impact and changes in national policymaking could result in bumps this year, a panel of economists projected Tuesday.
“There’s nothing that we’re seeing in conversations to show that patterns are changing very much,” said Laura Ullrich, a regional economist with the Richmond Federal Reserve’s Charlotte branch, during an NC Chamber forum.
“The uncertainty we face because of the election, because of Hurricane Helene and other world events, is making some companies slow down their decision-making processes.”
North Carolina has seen propulsive growth in recent years — driven by investment by both established and emerging industries, as well as a boom in new residents centered within metropolitan areas.
That growth appears likely to continue. But developments both in Washington, abroad and at home could complicate the equation.
In western North Carolina —a hub for tourism and key industries — Hurricane Helene destroyed countless homes and small businesses. The president and CEO of the NC Chamber, Gary Salamido, described it Tuesday as “North Carolina’s Katrina.”
Up in D.C., a new administration under Donald Trump is poised to enact tariffs that could spike prices of international imports. And conflicts across the world continue to disrupt global trade and the world economy.
John Connaughton, director of the UNC-Charlotte Economic Forecast, said ordinarily disasters like hurricanes result in two quarters of economic slowdown, followed by a major bounce-back the year after.
But Helene’s unique damage — much of it via rising water in uninsured mountain communities — means that formula isn’t necessarily applicable, he said.
“I don’t expect that slowdown to go away, frankly,” Connaughton said.
Regardless, the expected growth of key industries, specifically pharmaceutical manufacturing within the Triangle, will help cushion North Carolina for years to come, another economist predicted.
“Demand is only going to get higher,” said Travis Clark, an economist with Visa. “I expect that to be a main source of growth.”
NC Chamber will launch a health care plan for small businesses
Small businesses with two to 50 employees will soon be eligible to enroll in a new health care plan created by the NC Chamber and BlueCross BlueShield, Salamido said Tuesday. It will be open to businesses who are members with local chambers across North Carolina.
“Hopefully, everything goes well, it’ll be open for open enrollment in 2026,” Salamido said. “We’re going to spend this year getting that in place.”
The plan will be regulated by the Department of Insurance, and more details will roll out in the coming months, Salamido said.
Changes to state law as part of Senate Bill 382 — a controversial bill that shifted executive power — allowed the plan to come to fruition, the Chamber said in a December news release.
“Our product will fill a need in the small business health insurance market and give business owners the opportunity to grow their business while providing high-quality benefits to their employees,” the news release says.