The MLB offseason has kicked into full gear with the Winter Meetings just around the corner, it’s time to take stock of what happened in 2024 and see what lessons we can learn for 2025. In order to do that, we’re going to go position by position to break down the overall landscape and help find the best pockets of value.
Similar to last year, when I wrote my State of the Union for each position, I’m going to look at the value produced in 2024 by regular starters at each position to see where the most value is coming from each position and identify areas of strength that we can target in our drafts and areas of weakness that we can try and avoid. Last year, much of my analysis was based on the impact of the new rule changes, so this year we’ll just look at the overall landscape and see how much carried over.
Table of Contents
We started with first base and then covered second base last week, so now we’ll move on to third base today. To get a quick sense of the position, I looked at how many third basemen earned $10 in value according to the Fangraphs Player Rater.
Surprisingly, this is only two more hitters who earned double-digit value on the player rater than we saw at second base. I had believed that second base was clearly the weakest position, and it may end up being true as we dive in, but at first blush, seeing that few third basemen earn double-digit fantasy value is surprising.
A lot of it can be attributed to down seasons from Austin Riley, who then got hurt, Nolan Arenado, Max Muncy, and Isaac Paredes, all of whom earned double-digit value in 2023. That left only Jose Ramirez, Rafael Devers, Manny Machado, Alec Bohm, and Jake Burger as the five third basemen to earn double-digit value in each of the last two seasons. However, I should note that both Gunnar Henderson and Spencer Steer also earned double-digit value in both seasons but didn’t play any third base in 2024 and won’t have third base eligibility for 2025.
Rebound seasons from Eugenio Suarez and Matt Chapman put them both in the group that posted double-digit fantasy value but this is shaping up to be another top-heavy position with a handful of question marks outside of the elite hitetrs. However, Jazz Chisholm picking up third base eligibility last year gives this position a little more depth at the top.
Category Breakdown
Now we’ll see what value the third base position provided in each standard category in a Roto 5×5 league. I sorted by players who accumulated 300 plate appearances and looked to see if there was any meaningful change in the standard 5×5 offensive categories (batting average, home runs, runs, RBI, and steals). I did this for 2022 and 2023 last year, so we’ll compare those numbers and then dive into WHAT changed, WHY it may have happened, and HOW it should impact our 2025 draft plan.
Batting Average
Third base is slowly trending up when it comes to batting average assets; however, my gut tells me it’s because we’re seeing fewer true power hitters at the position (I guess we’ll see later if that’s true). Not only were there more hitters who hit for a usable batting average but eight full-time third basemen hit at least .270 in 2024, which is up slightly from 2023. Of those eight third basemen, three hit at least 28 home runs, and five hit at least 15 home runs, so there is some category depth here.
The bottom line, there is no reason to roster a third baseman who will actively hurt your batting average category, even if you need to sacrifice power or speed.
Home Runs
I guess my gut feeling that there was less power at the third base position is correct but not in a major way. There were also nine hitters with at least 25 home runs in 2022 and 2023 and eight achieved that in 2024 so, again, not a real meaningful drop off.
After a down power year in 2023, Jose Ramirez paced the position in 2024 and it was Austin Riley that experienced the power dip, hitting just 19 home runs in 110 games after leading the position the last two years. If we assume he would have hit at least 20 home runs had he not gotten hurt, a fair assumption, that means 14 third basemen would have hit at least 20 home runs, and Jordan Westburg also likely would have gotten there had he not been injured, so perhaps there isn’t as much of a power decline as I expected.
Ramirez, Eugenio Suarez, Manny Machado, Jake Burger, Rafael Devers, Mark Vientos, and Alex Bregman had a least 25 home runs. Jazz Chisholm just missed with 24 home runs, so there is some solid home run value to be found at third base.
RBI
A slight dip in RBI production from 2023 to 2024 but a lot of that can be explained by injuries. All of Austin Riley, Jeimer Candelario, and Josh Jung had at least 70 RBI in 2023 but were unable to reach that mark while battling injuries in 2024. We also had a major decline from Isaac Paredes and a slight dip from Ryan McMahon, which caused them to dip under the threshold. However, the sheer number of players we just discussed should make us feel a little better about the amount of RBI options that we truly have at the position.
All of Jose Ramirez, Manny Machado, Nolan Arenado, Alex Bregman, Rafael Devers, Eugenio Suarez, and Alec Bohm have had at least 70 RBI in three straight seasons, Austin Riley would have had he not been injured, and both Jake Burger and Matt Chapman have done it in two of the last three years. When you add Jazz Chisholm and Mark Vientos into the equation, that provides some high-end stability in this category. That doesn’t even include guys like McMahon, Jordan Westburg, and Christopher Morel who could all push that total in 2025.
Nine third basemen had at least 90 RBI in 2023, and I believe fully healthy seasons from Devers and Riley, along with developments from the younger players should make third base another strong target spot for elite RBI production in 2025.
Runs
It’s not a shock to see a bit of a dip in run production since many of the best third basemen are elite RBI producers who hit in the middle of the order which can sometimes impact their ability to also score runs.
All of Manny Machado, Alex Bregman, Jose Ramirez, Rafael Devers, Matt Chapman, Eugenio Suarez, and Nolan Arenado have reached this cut-off in three straight years. Alec Bohm was able to do it twice and Ryan McMahon and Jake Burger were just two RBI from hitting the mark in two straight years, so we have consistent run production at the third base position.
Many of those hitters were also hitters we saw at the top of the charts for RBI production, so we are getting a clear sense of a solid and consistent top tier of fantasy assets at the position.
Stolen Bases
We aren’t generally counting on third basemen to give us much value when it comes to steals since we know we’re getting solid power and RBI production. Many of the hitters who produce the most stolen base value are not hitters who we would start at third base regularly, guys like Dylan Moore, Luis Rengifo, and Zack McKinstry; however, Jose Ramirez, Jazz Chisholm Jr., and Maikel Garcia are all elite stolen base producers who have value in enough other categories to be potential targets as starting third basemen.
Outside of the elite stolen base assets, Manny Machado, Matt Chapman, Ke’Bryan Hayes, and Christopher Morel could all contribute enough stolen base value to be helpful to our squads.
Key Takeaways
After doing our deep dive, I’ve come away as confident in the third base position as I was heading into 2024. Injuries to some of the top-end contributors caused some of the overall dip in production we saw this past season, but I don’t expect that to carry over into 2025. With Jazz Chisholm now adding third base eligibility, there are five elite assets at the position (even with Jose Ramirez being the only first-round pick) and there are about 8-10 other guys who could fight for viability in 12-team formats.
To me, that means if you’re in a position to grab one of the top five players at the position, you could get a true leg up on the competition; however, if you miss out, there should be more than enough quality options that you can draft depending on whether you want to skew towards power or batting average or speed. As a result, I’d probably rather land an elite outfielder and one of the top second base options before I worry about snagging my third baseman; however, I certainly would mind if one of the top ones fell into my lap.
Offseason Storylines
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How healthy will Austin Riley, Rafael Devers, Royce Lewis, and Josh Jung be?
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Where will Alex Bregman sign?
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Will Nolan Arenado or Alec Bohm be traded into a better or worse setup?
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Does Junior Caminero get a full-time job in Tampa Bay?
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Does Jordan Westburg remain a full-time starter with Coby Mayo and Jackson Holliday ready?
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Will Noelvi Marte be given another shot at a full-time role?
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Will the Twins trade Willi Castro to a place where he starts full-time?
Top 15 Fantasy Third Basemen for 2025
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Jose Ramirez – Cleveland Guardians
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Rafael Devers – Boston Red Sox
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Austin Riley – Atlanta Braves
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Jazz Chisholm Jr. – New York Yankees
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Manny Machado – San Diego Padres
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Alex Bregman – Free Agent
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Jake Burger – Miami Marlins
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Alec Bohm – Philadelphia Phillies
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Mark Vientos – New York Mets
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Matt Chapman – San Francisco Giants
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Royce Lewis – Minnesota Twins
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Junior Caminero – Tampa Bay Rays
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Eugenio Suarez – Arizona Diamondbacks
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Nolan Arenado – St. Louis Cardinals
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Josh Jung – Texas Rangers