PANAMA CITY BEACH — The National Weather Service forecasters in Tallahassee say Bay County could see wind chill as low as 14 degrees next week, with other forecasting services saying snow could be in the weather outlook.
A rainy and warmer weekend is set to make way for the freezing conditions. Saturday is anticipated to be as warm as 67 with a 90% chance of rain throughout the day. The low that day should only reach about 50.
Forecasts show Sunday beginning the descent into freezing temperatures, with a high of 57 dropping to 27 during the evening. Martin Luther King Jr. Day is predicted to have a high near 41 and a low near 29. NWS Tallahassee minimum wind chill forecasts show temperature could feel as low as 16 on the holiday.
The outlook for the remainder of the week remains chilly through Wednesday, with lows in the 20s and highs near 40. Wind chills are expected to be at their worst on Wednesday at 14 degrees, but similarly punishing on Tuesday and Thursday at about 20.
The frigid temperatures aren’t expected to let up until Friday, when wind chills are forecast around 32.
There’s some rain expected on Tuesday in conjunction with the freezing temperatures, leading some online to speculate about snow in the Florida panhandle. AccuWeather forecasts for Tuesday say that sleet and snow are possible for Panama City, and pin the probability for precipitation at 30%.
Some local meteorologists say that as of Friday, it’s looking like a mix of snow, sleet and freezing rain could be in the forecast early next week.
AccuWeather’s monthly outlook shows below-freezing temperatures letting up by Thursday, with no freezing lows anticipated for the remainder of January.
For those looking to enjoy the warmer weather during the long weekend before the freeze, forecasters say Saturday will be poor for most activities with a 90% chance of rain.
Conditions for fishing are anticipated to be poor on Saturday but good during the rest of the weekend, according to AccuWeather. Beachgoers are not anticipated to have any decent conditions in the near future, with a poor outlook throughout the weekend and into next week.
Golfers should see fair conditions on Sunday and Monday before they deteriorate with the cold weather. Outlooks for hiking and running show similar trends.
Outlook for Florida
It’s been a cold January in Florida. The Sunshine State is getting slammed with freezing cold fronts this winter – a far cry from fall predictions of a warm and dry winter across the southeast.
Yet another January cold front is on its way, but this time, there’s a slim chance it could be bringing snow flurries to Tallahassee.
According to AccuWeather, two cold fronts are forecast to move through the Southeast this weekend and next week and could potentially bring a brief period of ice or snow to the panhandle.
Here’s a roundup of what to know about snow in Florida, if it will snow in Tallahassee next week and how cold it has to get for snow to form.
Is it possible for Florida to have snow?
1977: A girl plays in the snow during a rare snowfall in Northeast Florida.
Yes! It is rare, but possible for it to snow in Florida. It’s actually snowed more than 80 times in The Sunshine State since 1886.
Snow in Florida: Here’s where you can see real snow through March
When did it last snow in Florida?
The last time snow was recorded in Florida was on Jan. 28, 2014, when there was 1 inch of snow in Pensacola.
The first ever documented account of snow in Florida was reported in 1774, according to the Florida Climate Center at FSU.
“Since 1886, there have been more than 80 months in which at least a trace of snow has been reported somewhere in the state,” according to the Climate Center.
Almost exactly 48 years ago, on Jan. 19, 1977, snow fell in south Florida for the first time in recorded history, according to the National Weather Service.
Here are some examples of snow experiences in Florida since 1950, from the Climate Center:
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February 2, 1951: “Two inches were reported in St. Augustine and Crescent City.”
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March 6, 1954: “Four inches were reported at the Milton Experimental Station; this total holds as the 24-hour state snowfall record.”
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February 13, 1958: “Rain changed to snow; 1.5 inches were reported in Jacksonville, and 2.8 inches reported in Tallahassee.”
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February 9-10, 1973: “A large snowstorm that affected the Southeast U.S. brought 1.8 inches of snow in Pensacola on the 9th and 0.4 inches in Tallahassee on the 10th. Flurries were reported as far south as Lisbon and Clermont.”
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January 17-19, 1977: “Snow started falling in Pensacola on the 17th. On the 19th, flurries were reported as far south as Homestead. Areas along I-4 (Tampa/Orlando) reported 1 to 2 inches of snow.”
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December 23, 1989: “Rain changed to snow in Jacksonville, and totals of several inches were reported in some locations; the city had its first White Christmas.”
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March 12, 1993: “The ’93 Superstorm produced up to 4 inches of snow along the Florida Panhandle.”
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November 21, 2006: “A dusting of snow fell over portions of central Florida, the first November snow in the state since 1912.”
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January 8-9, 2010: “A light dusting of snow was seen in Jacksonville. Light snow fell in parts of central Florida with sleet/snow reported in Orlando, Tampa, and Melbourne. Flurries are reported in West Palm Beach and Kendall.”
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December 26, 2010: “A mix of snow and sleet was reported in Jacksonville, with a freezing fog event around midnight. Tallahassee, Gainesville, and other locations in the northern peninsula reported flurries during the day.”
Will Florida get snow in 2025?
North and Central Florida will see subfreezing temperatures from Sunday through Wednesday.
Some people thought Florida might see snow last week, with freezing temperatures sweeping the state, but there was little to no precipitation to make that possible.
And while the possibility of that happening seemed to dissipate earlier this week, a Wednesday, Jan. 15 forecast from AccuWeather indicated that the Florida panhandle will see below-freezing temperatures next week, with a slim chance of snow flurries (10-20%).
“The Florida Panhandle could see a brief period of snow or ice toward the middle of next week,” AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist John Feerick told the USA TODAY Florida Network in an email.
Long-range weather predictions and forecasts change all the time, and it still isn’t probable that Florida will see any snow at all in 2025, but it is possible.
See the forecast: Will Florida see snow in next round of cold fronts?
Is it going to snow in Tallahassee? Five-day weather outlook for Tallahassee, Florida
The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast model shows a slim (10-20%) chance of snow in the Florida Panhandle
If the below-freezing temperatures predicted are combined with enough moisture and precipitation, portions of the panhandle could see ice or snow flurries.
The first of the two large systems expected to move across the Southeast is expected from Friday into Saturday and the second from Jan. 22 through Jan. 24, according to the National Weather Service Southern Region.
“At this time, wintry precipitation seems unlikely for most of Florida, but it is not totally out of the question that the Florida Panhandle could see a brief period of snow or ice toward the middle of next week,” Feerick told the USA TODAY Florida Network.
“That’s something we’ll continue to monitor, and we’ll be able to nail down some more specifics over the next few days.”
As the cold front approaches Florida, the northern half of the state can expect plenty of rain, according to NOAA’s precipitation outlook for Jan. 15 through Jan. 22.
Here’s the weather forecast in Tallahassee, Florida for the next five days, from AccuWeather:
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Thursday, Jan. 16: High of 65, Low of 34, Partly cloudy
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Friday, Jan. 17: High of 66, Low of 42, Mostly cloudy
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Saturday, Jan. 18: High of 70, Low of 55, 98% chance of rain, thunderstorms and wind
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Sunday, Jan. 19: High of 60, Low of 27, Mostly cloudy
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Monday, Jan. 20 (MLK Day, Inauguration Day): High of 47, Low of 28, Mostly cloudy
How cold does it have to be to snow?
Cold weather expected to return to Florida with widespread freezes possible.
According to the National Weather Service, there needs to be a relative humidity value in the air of 70% or higher for snow to form. If the air doesn’t have enough moisture, then snow and sleet have nothing to form from. And the atmospheric temperature (the temperature of the air below the clouds) has to be 32 degrees Fahrenheit or lower, or else the snow or sleet will melt on the way to the ground.
This article originally appeared on The News Herald: Freezing temps, possible snow coming to Bay County next week