North Jersey should get only a dusting, but areas farther south may get much more as a significant winter storm barrels into the region Monday.
Snow, sleet and freezing rain are some of the likely feature attractions, as well as temperatures that are expected to hover around the freezing mark during the day, and as low as 20 degrees or the upper teens Monday night, according to Bryan Ramsey, meteorologist for the National Weather Service in Upton, New York.
But how much snow seems to be — literally — up in the air right now.
As of Saturday, the projection for North Jersey is light: maybe half an inch to an inch. Winds are not expected to be strong: perhaps 5 to 10 mph.
How much snow will North Jersey get Monday?
But this particular weather pattern, which is trending south at the moment, is capricious.
“We are going to see a sharp cutoff in the totals north to south, with the higher totals south,” Ramsey said. “The system has kind of shifted a little more south, compared to our forecast yesterday, so our totals are a little lower.”
Paramus, Newark, West Milford could range from 0 to 2 inches of snow, with one inch being expected, according to the National Weather Service. But in Connecticut, as little as 60 miles to the north, Bridgeport, Danbury and New Haven, the expectation is zero.
Several other Bergen towns including Bergenfield, Hackensack, Lyndhurst and Ridgewood have expected snow totals of under an inch, per the National Weather Service.
Snow totals could be as much as 4 to 7 inches south of the Atlantic City Expressway, according to Joe Martucci, president and director of meteorology at Cup A Joe Weather and Drone in Monmouth county.
“From the AC Expressway to 195 my forecast is 2 to 4 inches,” Martucci said. “And then 195 north to route 80 is like a coating to two inches.”
There could be delays at Newark Liberty and JFK Airports Monday morning, and possibly cancellations in more southerly airports such as Atlantic City and Philadelphia, he said. But such is the track of this storm, whose northern edge is expected to be the bottom of New York state, that it’s possible LaGuardia airport, 14 miles north of JFK, could be unaffected. “Ten miles could make a difference,” he said.
Winter Storm Blair
The weather event, dubbed “Winter Storm Blair” by The Weather Channel, began on the West Coast Friday and been making its way eastward all weekend — but veering more to the south, as it follows the route of the jet stream.
“It’s a very intense storm,” said Bob Ziff, spokesman of North Jersey Weather Observers in Ramsey.
“It formed off the Pacific coast and then rode the jet stream, moving west to east,” Ziff said. “Everyone seems to agree that South Jersey to Washington, D.C. is probably going to be the heavy snow.”
It’s already dropped freezing rain across the plains and Midwest, and is expected to create severe weather in the southern U.S. Sunday, including damaging winds and possible tornadoes. North of the Mississippi Valley, the storm will manifest as winter weather. “My advice is, if you don’t have to travel, especially south of 195, don’t,” Martucci said.
The storm should be out of the area Monday night, though the intense cold is expected to remain for several days more. There may also be higher winds: gusting up to 30 to 35 mph Monday night and Tuesday.
“Since we’re starting a freezing and going well below freezing, even if it’s a light snowfall, people will have to watch for untreated surfaces, snow-covered surfaces,” Ramsey said. “Really, just drive carefully on the roads.”
This article originally appeared on NorthJersey.com: Monday snow forecast in NJ: Predictions by town