Amid conflicting speculation, a leading meteorologist has set the record straight on whether Australians should expect to see a La Niña weather event this summer, based on the latest modelling.
La Niña is a weather phenomenon that brings cooler ocean temperatures in the Pacific and typically results in increased rainfall and more frequent storms across much of Australia. It is the counterpart to El Niño, which causes drier conditions.
Australians will have no trouble remembering the three consecutive La Niña events from 2020 to 2022, — an unusual occurrence known as a “triple-dip” — which led to record-breaking rainfall in many areas, causing widespread flooding, particularly in eastern states like Queensland and New South Wales.
Speaking to Yahoo News Australia, the University of Melbourne’s Andrew King said based on the most recent modelling from the Bureau of Meteorology, it’s “unlikely” we’ll see another La Niña in the coming months — but that doesn’t mean it’ll be totally dry.
“It’s unlikely we’ll see a proper La Niña declaration this summer, as the Bureau acknowledges, the Pacific Ocean is in a neutral state. It’s kind of closer to La Niña than it is El Niño, but not really meeting the thresholds for La Niña,” King told Yahoo.
It’s unlikely we’ll see a proper La Niña declaration this summer. Source: Getty.
Why is it unlikely La Niña will form now?
He said “because we’re in January now, we don’t really see La Niña events” forming at this time of year. “It’s generally when we see El Niño events. They form in late winter and peak during spring and early summer,” King said.
“The Pacific resets in mid-autumn as well. Usually when this change happens, the variability dies down, and then something new appears in the Pacific in winter and spring. That’s when we usually transition from one type of event to another.
“To declare a La Niña really requires persistent colder conditions in the Central Pacific, we’re just not likely to get those the system for more than a few weeks.”
While La Niña can benefit drought-stricken areas, the excess water can also lead to water logging of crops, damage to infrastructure, and heightened risks of landslides.
Experts warn that the impacts of La Niña are becoming more pronounced due to climate change, making it crucial to prepare for more intense weather cycles in the future.
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