Rep. Mike Lawler began 2025 with a flourish, taking a victory lap with passage of the Social Security Fairness Act, which enhanced Social Security benefits to 2 million public workers who also receive government pensions.
“Congressman Mike Lawler delivered on his promise to protect benefits to New York retirees,” declared a mailing to constituents sent from his Congressional office in early January.
What Lawler’s mailing left out, however, was how the federal government will pay for the expanded benefits as the cost of Social Security continues to outstrip federal tax income.
The Baby Boom generation is moving deeper into retirement. Birth rates were lower for Generation X and Millennials, leaving a smaller workforce to pay into the system.
The benefits expansion heralded by Lawler, R-Pearl River, will cost $195 billion over 10 years, hastening depletion of the Trust Fund by six months, according to the Congressional Budget Office, which estimates the fund would be exhausted by 2033.
That’s the year that Americans born in 1966 will turn 67.
Rep. George Latimer, D-Rye, right, and Rep. Mike Lawler, R-Pearl River, say more time is needed to come up with ways to make the Social Security Trust Fund solvent by 2033.
Benefits would be cut if Social Security fund is depleted
Once the fund is depleted, Social Security benefits would be cut by 22% unless new streams of revenues are found, according to Phillip Swagel, director of the Congressional Budget Office.
“Time is running out,” said Rachel Greszler, senior fellow at the Heritage Foundation, the conservative think tank in Washington, DC. “None of those in Gen X or the Millennial Generation will receive full benefits when they retire, based on current law.”
Annie Shuppy, a senior fellow at Third Way, a Washington-based, center-left think tank, said Congress missed an opportunity to address the coming shortfall when it passed the Social Security Fairness Act. President-elect Donald Trump’s proposals to eliminate payroll taxes on tips and overtime would further erode Security Security Trust Fund revenues, she said.
“Instead of improving solvency, Congress worsened the situation by six months,” she said. “And it seems unlikely Trump or the newly sworn-in Congress are going to touch Social Security over the next four years.”
Lawler, Latimer favor major studies of the options for Social Security
Neither Lawler nor freshman Rep. George Latimer, D-Rye, say they have a solution for the pending revenue shortfall, as policymakers and economists in Washington jockey to promote solutions.
The stakes are huge in the 16th District, represented by Latimer, and the 17th, represented by Lawler. A 2023 Social Security Administration report detailed 263,000 Social Security recipients in the 16th and 308,000 in the 17th. Retired workers over age 65 receiving Social Security benefits represent about 20% of registered voters in both districts.
When he was a freshman member of Congress two years ago, Lawler said he would not back any plan that would have an “negative” impact on seniors. At the time, he called on Congress to establish a bipartisan commission to study the issue. However, Lawler, a prolific sponsor of bipartisan legislation, has yet to propose such a bill.
In 2025, Lawler has again called for a bipartisan commission to come up with a revenue solution.
“Regarding the future solvency of the program, the Congressman believes that a bipartisan commission should be established to find solutions for ensuring Social Security remains viable long-term,” said Lawler spokesman Nate Soule. “The most important thing we can do is make sure this program is there for future generations – and the bipartisan commission the Congressman believes needs to be established can provide recommendations as they convene.”
Latimer, 71, who began receiving Social Security benefits in the fall of 2024, also believes the issue needs further study.
“The Congressman is in favor of a full and fair analysis of how to secure the Social Security trust funds,” said Latimer spokesman Rich Orsillo. “However, any solution to securing this vital earned benefit cannot be at the expense of working people and retirees who have contributed to the system their entire careers.”
Republican Study Committee wants higher retirement age
In 2023, the Congressional Republican Study Committee, which during the last Congressional term comprised the lion’s share of GOP House membership and leadership, proposed increasing the age when a senior citizen would receive full Social Security benefits from 67 to 69. Lawler is not a member of the committee.
Studies have found that such an increase would cut benefits by about 13% because seniors would delay filing for Social Security to ensure they received their full benefits.
Some Democrats, meanwhile, have urged larger increases in the top-limit on taxation of income for Social Security’s 12.4% tax — half paid by the employee, and half by the employer. The ceiling for Social Security taxation in 2025 rose 5% to $176,100.
Another possibility would be increasing the FICA tax on wages, with some estimating it would require a tax as high as 17% to make Social Security whole in 2033 without other changes, said Greszler, of the Heritage Foundation.
Greszler said there appears to be little appetite on Capitol Hill to boost the retirement age. She’s now promoting a plan that would create a flat rate for Social Security benefits, based on the number of years you have worked, which would reduce benefit levels for middle- and upper-income Americans.
“If we got away from the wage index, we could protect the benefits of the bottom 30% and reduce benefits for middle- and upper-income earners. Does it really make sense to have a program like we have now that gives the highest benefits to the highest earners?”
Such a proposal, however, appears prime for stiff opposition, and more years of study.
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David McKay Wilson writes about tax issues and government accountability. Follow him on Twitter @davidmckay415 or email him at dwilson3@lohud.com.
This article originally appeared on Rockland/Westchester Journal News: Latimer, Lawler want more study to fix Social Security Trust Fund