How’s your winter looking so far, Canada?
Even though we’re about halfway through the season, we’ve got lots of winter left to live. A mild start to the season in just about every corner of the country will flip in a hurry as we round out January and head into February.
Here’s a look at the country’s midterm report card for the first half of meteorological winter, and what we can expect heading into the second half of the season.
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Mild conditions overall so far
Even though winter has certainly shown up at times, every city on the map below is on the board with above-seasonal temperatures through the first half of winter 2024-2025.
Winter Midterm Report Card 2024 2025
The warm-weather anomalies grow more extreme as you go farther north. Toronto has seen temperatures come slightly above-seasonal so far this winter—while it’s been noticeably warmer in places like Calgary and St. John’s.
These anomalies aren’t going to stick around forever. Change is on the way.
Western Canada looks to turn chilly
Calgary ran warm through the first half of winter, and that pattern reflects in the city’s snowfall totals to date. Even the heavy thump of snow we saw in November left us short of where we should be by this point in the season.
Winter Midterm Report Card Through End of January
Folks throughout Western Canada are no strangers to volatile conditions through the heart of winter. Expect conditions to remain near “normal”—for as normal as things can be during this changeable time of year—for the next couple of weeks.
Winter will make itself known into February, however, as a more consistently cold pattern takes hold heading through the month. Below-seasonal temperatures are expected across British Columbia and Western Canada during early February.
Winter Midterm Report Card West Storm Track
British Columbia’s exceptionally dry January weather shouldn’t translate into an extended February dry streak. Forecasters expect an active pattern to build back into the West Coast heading into the second month of the year—a pattern which could bring the potential for snow to places like Vancouver.
Cold pattern set to reign over Eastern Canada
The polar vortex is the name of the game throughout most of the eastern half of Canada rounding out January and heading into the start of February.
Winter Midterm Report Card Mid to Late February
Surges of Arctic air rushing southward will make for a brutally chilly third week of January, rivalling some of the coldest temperatures we’ve seen in years.
Milder weather will attempt to fight back by the end of the month, with a better chance for milder temperatures to arrive by the second and third weeks in February.
But where’s the snow? While the Great Lakes have been awash in lake-effect snow this season, Toronto still hasn’t seen a 10+ cm snowfall yet this winter. Even folks over in St. John’s have fallen behind in the snowfall department.
Winter Midterm Report Card East Storm Track
The storm track so far this season has been through the eastern U.S. and out to sea, leaving southern Ontario and southern Quebec lacking much consistent snowy weather.
A more active storm track is likely heading through the second half of winter, bringing storms a little farther west to include southern Ontario, southern Quebec, and large swaths of Atlantic Canada. However, this storm track could also bring the milder air with it—setting up high-impact, messy storms with prominent battlegrounds between snow, rain, and ice.
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