Poring over fourth down decision making from the 2024 NFL regular season confirmed there is bifurcation in how head coaches value fourth down analytics. There are decidedly old-school coaches who have no use for such data, and those who cling to the data like a religious text. There were, however, some surprises this past season in which coaches fell into which category.
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Mike Tomlin started the 2024 season the way he ended the 2023 season and every season before that as Steelers head coach: By making obscenely suboptimal fourth down decisions.
Tomlin in Week 1 against the Falcons put on a veritable master class in how to destroy a team’s win probability, a stat for which Tomlin does not care. In Pittsburgh’s Week 1 win against Atlanta, Tomlin made two of the least optimal fourth down calls of the entire 2024 season, a big victory for sports analytics skeptics considering the Steelers won the game, 18-10. Tomlin’s Steelers punted twice in the fourth quarter — one punt cut Pittsburgh’s win probability from 66 percent to 52 percent, the other slashed that probability by 15 points, from 61 to 46 percent. Those two calls were among the most suboptimal in recent NFL history.
The Steelers won the season opener on the strength — if that’s the word — of six Chris Boswell field goals. Four of those six kicks, according to the analytics, were suboptimal, lowering the team’s win probability by as much as 6 percentage points. And yet, Tomlin won. Because that’s what he does. Bad process, good results. So it goes.
The 2024 season brought more of the same for the always-OK-but-not-great Tomlin Steelers: Hyper-conservative decision making on fourth downs that demonstrated a lack of trust in the team’s quarterbacks — deserved, perhaps — and put weekly pressure on the Pittsburgh defense to bend, but never break.
Mike DeFabo, who covers the Steelers for The Athletic, told me Tomlin’s Steelers could eventually become more aggressive on fourth downs as Tomlin gains trust in the team’s offense. Recent investments in the offensive line — including tackle Troy Fautanu and center Zach Frazier — could go a long way in making the 2025 Steelers more likely to roll the dice on fourth downs.
“As this line develops, I’d expect the Steelers to go for it more on fourth down and lean on the big guys up front to pave the way,” DeFabo said, adding that the Steelers’ lack of a viable quarterback in recent seasons has likely played a part in Tomlin leaning on his top-tier defense and refusing to trust the offense on critical fourth downs, especially late in games. “I do think the approach would change if the Steelers had an upper-echelon quarterback.”
Whether Steelers offensive coordinator Arthur Smith put his offense in position to successfully convert fourth downs last season is up for discussion. What’s certain is that both Russell Wilson and Justin Fields were putrid on fourth downs. On limited samples — Fields was in for six fourth down conversion attempts, Wilson for five — both Pittsburgh signal callers were among the worst on fourth downs, according to EPA (expected points added) data. Fields’ fourth down EPA was in line with Tommy DeVito and Gardner Minshew.
Pittsburgh’s failure to turn fourth downs into first downs, DeFabo said, certainly weighed on Tomlin’s mind in such situations. Only the Cowboys had a lower fourth down conversion rate than the Steelers in 2024.
Tomlin in ‘24 was the NFL’s eighth most conservative decision maker on fourth downs, which makes it one of his most aggressive fourth down decision making seasons. Tomlin went for it on 13 percent of the Steelers’ fourth downs, miles south of the league-leading, analytics-loving Dan Campbell, who tried to convert 32 percent of Detroit’s fourth downs. Here’s a quick look at where teams ranked in fourth down aggressiveness, according to RBSDM.com.
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The Fourth Down Aggressors
It was the usual suspects at the top of the fourth down go rate.
Campbell, with his cartoonish biceps, continued carrying the analytics torch for the nerds among us (in 2023 he led the league in fourth down go rate at 28 percent). Raheem Morris and Dan Quinn were close behind, and Quinn’s fourth-down process-over-results commitment paid off big time in the Commanders’ Wild Card and Divisional Round victories over the Bucs and Lions, respectively. Quinn was aggressive for part of the Commanders’ NFC title game loss to the Eagles, but hedged on a couple fourth down decisions in Washington’s blowout loss (Quinn’s decision to kick a field goal on the game’s first drive raised the team’s win probability by 0.5 percent, for whatever that’s worth).
If you count the postseason — and perhaps we should, considering the stakes — Quinn’s Commanders finished the year as the most aggressive fourth down team. Such is the power of Jayden Daniels and his on-target short-area passing and mobility outside the pocket. It’s notable that the Commanders did not storm out of the proverbial gates in September going for it on every short fourth down. Washington was quite conservative on fourth downs over the season’s first half — a Week 2 field goal decision against the Giants knocked a cool 12 percent off the team’s win probability, for example. Trust in Daniels grew as the season wore on, and the fourth down decision making changed dramatically by December. The result: Washington led the NFL by a wide margin with an 87 percent fourth down conversion rate. Their running game, in short, dominated on fourth and short.
Mike Macdonald in his first year at the helm in Seattle proved quite the contrast to punt-loving Pete Carroll. Macdonald was the league’s sixth most aggressive fourth down decision maker after the Seahawks under Carroll ranked 31st in fourth down aggressiveness from 2017 to 2023. Carroll, now the Raiders’ head coach, never saw a fourth down worth converting. He made a fourth down field goal call in 2017 (Week 17 against Arizona) that trimmed a mind numbing 30 percent off the Seahawks’ win probability. The analytics have never known such a defeat.
Macdonald’s commitment to keeping drives alive and prioritizing touchdowns didn’t amount to a whole lot. Seattle ranked 22nd in fourth down conversion rate (53 percent). They weren’t all that good on third downs either, with the league’s tenth lowest conversion rate.
Us analytics nerds would like to welcome Sean McDermott to the party, where the music is turned down and we gather around and warm our hands around the spreadsheets. McDermott went for it on 23 percent of Buffalo’s fourth downs, up from 16 percent in 2023.
Having an unstoppable quarterback paid off for the Bills in 2024: They converted 73 percent of their fourth down tries, second only to Washington. Josh Allen finished the regular season with the second highest EPA on fourth downs. Jayden Daniels, naturally, was first.
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The Fourth Down Traditionalists
Chargers head coach Jim Harbaugh continued his grand tradition of punting at every opportunity in his first year on the LA sideline. No one, as you can see in the chart above, was more conservative on fourth downs.
Perhaps Jim should consider doing the fourth down thing more often. The Chargers had the league’s seventh lowest rushing stuff rate on third and fourth downs (24 percent). Converting 63 percent of their fourth down tries, the Chargers were among the best ten teams, with Justin Herbert ranking ninth among quarterbacks in fourth down EPA. The Bolts have much to consider if they’re going to get the most out of their franchise quarterback under Harbaugh.
Mike McDaniel, despite his nerd aesthetic, was as anti-analytics as any coach in the league, with Matt LaFleur — who headed one of the most run-heavy teams in the NFL — was close behind.
And in case you’re wondering — because I was wondering the same — McDaniel was not more aggressive on fourth down situations with Tua Tagovailoa under center. Over the season’s final seven weeks, only four teams were more conservative on fourth downs. Tagovailoa, for the record, posted the NFL’s eighth best EPA on fourth downs in 2024. Despite Tua’s efficiency, only six teams had a lower conversion rate than Miami. The Dolphins were miserable on third downs as well. This was almost entirely due to the team’s running backs failing in short yardage situations. Miami’s backs in 2024 were stuffed on 39 percent of their third and fourth down carries; only the Bears were worse.
LaFleur, meanwhile, might’ve made Bill Parcells blush with his fourth down conservativeness. The Packers had a mere 16 fourth down conversion attempts last season. They were successful on eight, and Jordan Love ranked 18th out of 31 qualifying quarterbacks in fourth down EPA. Love was 17th in completion rate over expected on those fourth downs.
Some of LaFleur’s anti-analytics lowlights from 2024 include chopping Green Bay’s win probability from 34 percent to 21 percent in Week 14 against the Lions, opting for a red zone field goal in the fourth quarter. The Packers lost to Detroit, 34-31.
Now for a little optimism for Bears faithful. Caleb Williams was ninth best in fourth down EPA and third best in fourth down accuracy during his up-and-mostly-down rookie campaign. Williams was just a shade south of Josh Allen’s passer rating on fourth downs last year.
The Bears converted 60 percent of their fourth downs, the 13th best mark in the league, and only the Browns had more fourth down attempts. That tends to happen with bad teams. Williams, as noted above, got no help whatsoever from Bears running backs, who were stuffed at the line of scrimmage on a whopping 25 of 64 third and fourth down rushes. No team had a higher stuff rate.
That Williams (mostly) came through on such high leverage downs could be an outsized factor in 2025 with ultra-aggressive Ben Johnson — a Dan Campbell acolyte — taking over as head coach in Chicago.