November extends global warming trend as 2024 set to be hottest year

Surprise, surprise. Another year is almost finished and the world is likely to see its hottest 12-month period on record once again.

The news of 2024 mostly likely becoming the warmest year on record comes with another alarming, but not surprising, fact: Last month was the second-warmest November on record. The statistics were included in the European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) report, which was released on Monday.

SEE ALSO: Canada makes major announcement at COP29

With an average ERA5 surface air temperature of 14.10 C, 0.73 C above the 1991-2020 median for November, last month’s warmth was second only to November 2023. The median temperature last month was 1.62 C above the pre-industrial level, according to the report.

Second-warmest November on record for the globe

It also mentioned that it was the 16th month in a 17-month period in which the worldwide, average surface air temperature exceeded 1.5 C above pre-industrial levels. It did note, however, that datasets other than ERA5 may not confirm the 16 months above 1.5 C for various reasons.

Meanwhile, from January–November 2024, the global-average temperature anomaly was 0.72 C above the 1991-2020 median, the highest on record for this period and 0.14 C warmer than the same period in 2023, according to C3S.

With only a few weeks left in the year, the statistic “effectively” guarantees 2024 is going to be the warmest year on record, and will be more than 1.5 C above the pre-industrial level, according to the ERA5 dataset, the European organization said.

2024 on track to be the warmest year on record, and first year above 1.5 C threshold/Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S)

2024 on track to be the warmest year on record, and the first above 1.5 C. (Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S)/The Weather Network)

“With Copernicus data from the penultimate month of the year, we can now confirm with virtual certainty that 2024 will be the warmest year on record and the first calendar year above 1.5 C. This does not mean that the Paris Agreement has been breached, but it does mean ambitious climate action is more urgent than ever,” said Samantha Burgess, deputy director of the Copernicus Climate Change Service, in the report.

Europe was warm, but not enough to break records

The analysis revealed some notable figures in Europe in November 2024.

The average temperature experienced in European land in November was 5.14 C, 0.78 C above the 1991-2020 average for the month, according to the C3S report. Interestingly enough, it failed to make the top 10-warmest Novembers on record for the continent. November 2015 is still the warmest November on record for Europe, with a reading of 1.74 C above average, C3S said in the examination.

Monthly global surface air temperature anomalies/Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S)

(Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S))

Meanwhile, temperatures were above average over northern Russia, and across northeastern and southwestern Europe. Southeastern Europe, on the other hand, saw below-average readings.

Looking outside of Europe, temperatures were mostly above average over Eastern Canada, and the central and eastern U.S., majority of Mexico, Morocco, northwestern Africa, China, Pakistan, much of Siberia, and Australia.

Not every locale was warmer than usual for November. Readings were most notably below average across the western U.S., parts of northern Africa, across far-eastern Russia, and in most of Antarctica.

Sea surface temperatures were up and down, and sea ice coverage was low

It wasn’t just air temperatures that were mild last month.

Sea surface temperature anomalies

The average sea surface temperature (SST) for November 2024 in latitudes over 60°S–60°N was 20.58 C, the second-highest value on record for the month, just 0.13 C below the reading recorded during that time last year.

However, the equatorial Eastern and Central Pacific had below-average temperatures, the report said, signalling the shift towards neutral or La Niña conditions. Still, sea surface temperatures across the ocean remained unusually high over many regions.

Arctic sea ice reached its third-lowest monthly extent for November, sitting at nine per cent below average. Antarctic sea ice extent also hit its lowest monthly value for November, as well, at 10 per cent below average, slightly exceeding the values from 2016 and 2023, and extending a series of historically large negative anomalies recorded throughout 2023 and 2024.

When looking at sea ice concentration anomalies, they were well below average in the ocean region surrounding Svalbard and Franz Josef Land, according to C3S. Meanwhile, sea ice concentration anomalies in the Southern Ocean were above average in the Weddell Sea and broad West Antarctic region, and below median in the South Atlantic, Indian, and Ross Sea locales.

Where does El Niño and La Niña fit into the warmth in 2023 and 2024?

November 2023 was rather warm, and that could make sense to scientists because, at this time last year, we were in the midst of a strong El Niño. It is a weather pattern that can impact all parts of the globe with different outcomes. It leads to an increase in water temperatures off the coast of South America, an anomaly that can yield warmer and drier conditions in Canada and the U.S.

Strong El Niño in 2023

The alarming part revealed itself this year. While we are transitioning to a La Niña, a pattern that should enable the globe to experience cooler temperatures, clearly, we are not seeing that so far. The questions become the following: Will we be on track to see further warming in 2025? Or, will La Niña (once we transition officially) help to cool the globe?

It should be mentioned that when it comes to climate change and related data, we need to observe trends and patterns over a long period of time. It is for that reason we can’t attribute one weather event on climate change versus another. We can, however, see notable trends that indicate our heat events, wildfire activity, hurricanes and flooding are becoming more frequent and more intense.

With files from Jaclyn Whittal, a meteorologist at The Weather Network.

Image Credits and Reference: https://ca.news.yahoo.com/november-extends-global-warming-trend-195756995.html