As Texas braces for winter, weather experts are keeping a close eye on the developing La Niña weather pattern.
Although the phenomenon is expected to be weak this year, it could still have a significant impact on precipitation patterns across the state, according to a recent article from the Climate Prediction Center.
Here’s what you can expect for Texas this winter and why La Niña could lead to drier conditions in the southern U.S., including the Lone Star State:
What is La Niña?
La Niña is the cooler counterpart to El Niño in the El Niño/Southern Oscillation system. It occurs when sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean drop below average. These cooler waters disrupt atmospheric circulation and influence weather patterns worldwide, including across North America.
Historically, La Niña winters bring drier conditions to the southern U.S. and wetter conditions to the Pacific Northwest and parts of the Midwest.
Texas winter weather forecast
Although La Niña this year is predicted to be weaker than usual, experts are seeing stronger than expected shifts in the precipitation forecast.
Typically, the strength of La Niña is directly related to how much it alters weather patterns. But this year, a relatively cooler Pacific Ocean compared with the surrounding tropical regions seems to be having an outsized impact, strengthening La Niña’s precipitation effects.
This means La Niña’s hallmark effect on Texas of a drier winter is still likely. Areas that usually see steady rainfall during winter might see less precipitation than normal. Temperatures will also be warmer than usual.
More: ERCOT meteorologist says Texas winter weather patterns are similar to 2021
Will Texas see snowstorms this winter?
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration winter forecast does not specify how much precipitation will fall as rain, snow or ice, only that less is likely overall.
Snow forecasts depend on the strength and track of winter storms, which generally cannot be predicted more than a week in advance, according to National Weather Service meteorologists.
However, while Chris Coleman, the top meteorologist for the Electric Reliability Council of Texas, also predicts above-normal temperatures this winter, he notes a “greater-than-average” chance of extreme cold weather events, according to The Texas Tribune.
“That doesn’t mean we’re going to have (another 2021 winter storm) Uri, but it does, again, state that we’re in a pattern that supports something like a Uri this winter,” Coleman told the Tribune. “The conditions are there.”
Austin, like the rest of the state, suffered lengthy blackouts in Texas’ deadly February 2021 storm. There’s a strong chance of extreme cold weather events this winter, according to Chris Coleman, the top meteorologist for the Electric Reliability Council of Texas.
This article originally appeared on Austin American-Statesman: NWS forecasts weak La Niña — what it means for Texas winter weather