The world’s biggest producer of olive oil is expecting a much better harvest for the 2024-2025 season. After “difficult periods” in recent years, will this mean shoppers in Canada can expect to pay less than we have been for olive oil in grocery stores?
It’s a topic that’s been relevant for the last several years. Unfavourable climate conditions, like drought, have impacted major international exporters of the product.
Yahoo Canada reached out to an expert who said lower prices for olive oil sold in Canadian stores will depend on several factors.
Dr. Sarah Duni is a researcher who focuses on Canadian food security. She says there are three major factors that are going to influence the price of olive oil in the coming year: Climate conditions, economic conditions, and local production.
Unpredictable climate: ‘Will it yield the amount of supply?’
The main factor will be related to climate conditions and how that will affect the coming year’s olive harvest.
“The world’s leading producers are dropping by 40 to 60 per cent in the last year alone,” she tells Yahoo Canada. “So the first issue will be what will happen to the climate conditions, will it yield the amount of supply?”
Olive trees grow best in Mediterranean climates — hot, dry summers and cool, but not frigid, winters. This is why countries like Spain, Italy and Turkey are some of the main players in olive oil production.
Strength — or weakness — of Canadian dollar could hurt imports
The second issue will depend on how the Canadian dollar performs in the coming year, compared to the Euro, as it can influence the price of importing.
“If the Canadian dollar strengthens, the importing of olive oil from these countries will be less expensive,” Duni says. “When you go to the retailer, that price will inevitably go down. On the other hand, if [the Canadian dollar] weakens, the cost will go up.”
Local production: Canada not a major player in olive oil production
Finally, Duni says that local production can also play a part in lowering the price of the product within Canada. While the country doesn’t have a mild climate to sustain olive groves year-round, she says parts of B.C. are showing some promise when it comes to producing olive oil.
“When we look at the possibility of local production, through innovative methods like high density planting and green houses, this can be scaled up,” she says. “So we’re not relying too much on other countries.”
According to market researcher Grand View Research, the Canadian market for olive oil is expected to grow at a rate of 6.5 per cent from 2024 to 2030. It also found that Canada accounted for only 0.7 per cent of the global olive oil market revenue in 2023.
World Population Review, an independent for-profit organization focused on global population data, found that in 2024, Spain was the largest producer of olive oil, producing 766.4 tons. Spain was followed by Italy, Turkey, Tunisia and Greece.
Duni admits Canada’s growth in this area is quite young, and it likely won’t immediately solve the issue of high prices on olive oil.
“Coupled with heightened inflation and import cost, it could be difficult to determine whether or not this very new market of local production in B.C. would hold its value throughout the year,” Duni says. “I don’t think it’s the only answer, but it’s part of the solution. But from an international perspective of us needing oil, I think we can safely assume this acquired taste can maintain a steady growth.”
The drop in supply of olive oil over the last few years has had a direct hit on prices, as was highlighted in a recent Reddit post that garnered almost 400 comments.
Users lamented the price of olive oil in Canadian grocery stores, sparking debate and wonder over where prices would be headed considering inflation and climate change.
One user posted a photo that showed 1-litre bottles of olive oil going for $22.99.
User PhillGuy said: “And that is why I stopped using olive oil altogether.”
User Samness45 said they now get their olive oil at Costco, one of the main reasons they got an account at the store.