Severe thunderstorms will once again roar across parts of the South this weekend just a week after over 90 tornadoes touched down from Texas to South Carolina.
While we are not expecting another tornado outbreak this weekend, some strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from southeast Texas to Mississippi Sunday afternoon and evening. The best chance for severe weather is in the red zone on the map below, which includes Jackson and Vicksburg, Mississippi; and Monroe, Louisiana.
Unlike last week, this storm system is expected to focus its severe potential primarily along a line of severe thunderstorms. While a few isolated storms will likely form ahead of this line, the primary threat will lean toward damaging wind gusts rather than tornadoes, although a few tornadoes are possible along and ahead of that squall line.
A few strong storms will also be possible on Monday along the Southeast coast, including northern Florida and southern Georgia.
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The setup for this threat is a familiar one.
Winter Storm Blair will be speeding eastward from Oklahoma to Virginia during the weekend. Along the way, it will pick up moisture, some modest heat and humidity from the Gulf of Mexico.
A dip in the jet stream will be plunging southeastward in tandem with Blair, providing robust upper-level wind support.
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The limiting factor this go around – a common one in January – is the amount of instability available for storms to work with. Spots in the threat zone depicted above will only have a few hours to bake in a diminished mid-winter sun before the storms arrive. This means that efficient atmospheric simmering isn’t expected, but wind shear and moisture will be plentiful.
This will all lead to an eastward-moving line or broken line of thunderstorms.
Jonathan Belles has been a graphics meteorologist and writer for weather.com for 8 years and also assists in the production of videos for The Weather Channel en español. His favorite weather is tropical weather, but also enjoys covering high-impact weather and news stories and winter storms. He’s a two-time graduate of Florida State University and a proud graduate of St. Petersburg College.