Hold up digging out your snow shovel. You may not need it.
As we approach what seems to be an impending winter weather event on Thursday, forecasters at the National Weather Service Office in San Angelo are putting the brakes on the expectations of a wintertime West Texas sledding scenario. You may just have to settle for wet grass.
“Things have trended a little drier and warmer compared to yesterday for most of West Central Texas,” said meteorologist Steve Harrison. “Now we’re seeing most likely a snowfall of around 2 inches for Abilene.”
Snow fills the channels of a water feature at the Redbud Park Splash Pad in Abilene after a mild snowfall Feb. 23, 2022. The forecast for this week’s snowfall has changed with little accumulation expected.
For San Angelo, it’s even less.
Harrison said it’s likely only an inch might fall for the Concho Valley area.
“There is also a good chance that it could be just a dusting of snow at best with mainly cold rain and some sleet for Wednesday and Thursday,” he added.
Still, with 48 hours to go from Tuesday morning, the forecast could change again — and then change more after that. In that light, for San Angelo, the low-probability, high-end forecast for snow could be 4 inches if everything lined up just right.
It’s the same story for Abilene. If the warmer air they are predicting doesn’t intrude aloft into our weather pattern, changing those snowflakes to raindrops before hitting the surface, the Key City might see 5 inches of snow.
And of course, like San Angelo, Abilene might not get any wintry precipitation at all and simply experience a cold rain event.
“Things have looked a lot less confident over the past 24 hours, in terms of getting good snowfall across West Central Texas,” Harrison said.
Snow crystals cluster near the stem of a berry hanging from a bush along S. Seventh St. in Abilene, Dec. 23, 2004.
Folks farther east and north might be the ones with more luck when it comes to sledding conditions.
Harrison said snowfalls of around 3 inches might be had in Callahan, Shackelford and possibly Eastland counties, as well as up toward Breckenridge, Mineral Wells and Graham.
Highs throughout the region will be between 36-38 degrees, with lows hovering around the 29-degree mark for Abilene and San Angelo.
Some weather apps are hinting at a possible snowfall in the middle of next week, but with that event seven days away, forecasters remain prudent for its chances.
“That’s looking like a low chance at the moment,” Harrison said. “I’m only seeing a few model solutions showing snow for next week.”
More: Cold arrives: Here are warming center locations in Abilene this week
More: San Angelo cold shelters opening in preparation for freezing temperatures
This article originally appeared on Abilene Reporter-News: Snow chances still up in the air as weather service revises forecast