Close to 70 years after the last train departed, southeastern Massachusetts is preparing to reconnect with Boston.
South Coast Rail, expected to launch public service in spring 2025, promises to transform the job market, economic conditions and regional connectivity by restoring direct service to Fall River, New Bedford and Taunton, the only major cities within a 50-mile radius of the state capital that lack commuter rail access to the city, according to the Massachusetts Department of Transportation.
But for communities already grappling with housing affordability crises, the long-awaited rail link raises questions about who will benefit.
Housing advocates warn that the project could exacerbate a crisis for low-income families and push longtime residents out of their neighborhoods.
“Without thoughtful planning, the rail will benefit some people, but might also deepen existing inequities and perpetuate the current affordable housing crisis for lower-income residents,” said Judith Liben, a housing attorney at the Boston-based Massachusetts Law Reform Institute.
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MBTA train crossing at 65 Chase Road in East Freetown on Monday June 17, 2024.
Fall River already facing housing challenges
Liben, who recently authored a report analyzing Fall River’s housing strategies, identified a series of challenges confronting low-income and working-class renters in the city.
Surging rents, high housing cost burdens, increasing evictions and a vacancy rate of just 1.2% have made affordable housing increasingly elusive for many residents, the report finds.
It also reveals that the city has prioritized the development of market-rate and luxury housing units while neglecting affordable housing needs and a comprehensive plan to address them.
“There are increasing evictions and fears of displacement,” said Liben. “And these are not just problems in Fall River, but you’ve seen them replicated in other places.”
Vehicles travel on Route 18 north bound in New Bedford, under the new pedestrian bridge connecting Purchase Street to the new rail train station, as the old one can be seen in the distance.
New Bedford has taken a different approach
The MLRI report pointed to New Bedford as a model for a more balanced approach to addressing its housing crisis.
With plans to expand both market-rate and mixed-income housing, the report positions New Bedford to pursue more equitable growth compared to neighboring communities.
These strategies are informed by challenges identified in a MassINC study, which examined New Bedford’s residential market and found that over two-thirds of renters would be unable to afford typical asking rents if forced to move.
Another study by MassINC surveying the housing market in gateway cities highlights a decade-long trend of household growth outpacing housing stock growth from 2012 to 2022, tightening markets and reducing vacancy rates.
During that period, Fall River grew by 3,395 households, while on-market units increased by only 1,564, exacerbating the housing shortage. New Bedford saw a smaller but still significant gap, with households growing by 2,563 compared to an increase of 1,744 on-market units.
Over the next year, home values in both cities are expected to climb, driven by a combination of factors that may include the upcoming South Coast Rail and broader market trends.
Home values in Fall River are projected to rise by an average of 1.2% by Feb. 28, 2025, and further increase to 3.5% by Nov. 30, 2025, compared to values at the end of last month, an analysis of Zillow’s home value forecast data shows.
New Bedford is expected to see a similar trend, with home values predicted to grow by 1.1% by Feb. 28, 2025, and 3.35% by Nov. 30, 2025.
Davol Street is under construction near the Fall River Depot MBTA commuter rail station in Fall River on Thursday, Jan. 18, 2023.
Building transit-oriented development near the train
The introduction of commuter rail is expected to bring opportunities for transit-oriented development, a strategy that typically involves creating mixed-use developments near transit stations to stimulate local economies, attract businesses and encourage residential growth, according to the Massachusetts Bay Transportation Authority.
A report by MassINC highlights the transformative potential of transit-oriented development in gateway cities. With large swaths of vacant and underutilized land surrounding commuter rail stations, these cities have the opportunity to create thousands of new housing units and jobs.
But Liben argues, “housing for whom?”
The MBTA Communities Act, passed in 2021, mandates municipalities served by MBTA transit, including commuter rail, establish zoning districts permitting multi-family housing to be built as of right.
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The Freetown station of the South Coast Rail has been completed.
As MBTA communities, both Fall River and New Bedford are required to comply with the law to increase housing supply.
While Fall River’s compliance application is currently under review, New Bedford’s action plan has already received state approval, according to a tracker maintained by Boston Indicators, the research center at the nonprofit Boston Foundation.
Although the legislation focuses on increasing the overall supply of multi-family housing near transit areas, it does not explicitly require that this housing be designated as affordable or reserved for low-income residents.
Liben emphasized the importance of equitable development as new housing is introduced near the rail stations.
“We anticipate there will be a lot more housing, but it should be housing that is to some extent available to a broad income spectrum and not just wealthy people,” she said.
Neighborhood behind the new T stop at Depot St. in Fall River June 4, 2024.
For Paulo J. Amaral, a longtime resident of Fall River and former City Council candidate, the commuter rail represents both opportunity and challenge.
From a municipality standpoint, he said, an influx of people will boost the local economy and businesses, but low-income residents will suffer the most.
“You have a lot of people from up north coming to Fall River because they’re being displaced or they can’t afford to be there,” Amaral said. “They come in here and the same thing is going to happen to Fall River. So it’s a pro and con.”
Fall River may have to adapt
As residents brace for the changes brought by the South Coast Rail, Amaral acknowledged that progress is inevitable.
“It’s in the eye of the beholder, some people are going to win, some people are going to lose,” he said. “This is what happens in a society – things change, things are dynamic, they’re fluid and you got to adapt and adjust.”
Housing advocates like Liben stress the importance of the city setting clear affordable housing goals, adopting strong inclusionary zoning ordinances and maximizing the use of state and federal resources to increase affordable housing and prevent displacement.
“It’s wonderful the train is coming, but the city has to make sure that all of its residents benefit by the train coming and none of the residents are hurt by the train coming,” she said.
This article originally appeared on The Herald News: South Coast Rail will affect Fall River, New Bedford housing markets