A stubborn and slow moving low will continue to bring flurries and lake-effect snow to parts of southern and northern Ontario through Wednesday.
With most of the Great Lakes free of ice, the warmer surface water continues to provide instability to sustain low-pressure systems, keeping them borderline stationary.
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Expect slower, slippery commutes through the first half of this week, even with the lighter amounts expected across the Greater Toronto Area (GTA). The heaviest snow will continue to impact regions off of Lake Huron and Georgian Bay, with 20-30 cm possible by the time it eases through Wednesday.
Snow squall warnings remain in effect, urging drivers to prepare for quickly changing and deteriorating travel conditions.
“If visibility is reduced while driving, slow down, watch for tail lights ahead and be prepared to stop,” says Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) in the warning.
Baron – Ontario snow totals through Wednesday – Jan14
More tricky travel with ongoing squalls through Wednesday
On Tuesday, lake-effect snow will continue thanks to the colder air overhead, spilling into Wednesday.
As a trough moves through and shifts the winds from west to northwesterly, the snow squalls will be pushed south late Tuesday afternoon, which could bring a burst of flurries to parts of the GTA, and into London from the Lake Huron snow squalls.
Baron – Tuesday afternoon precipitation in Ontario – Jan14
Snow squalls will then continue off Georgian Bay and Lake Huron, targeting some different areas. Meaford to Wasaga Beach will see squalls off of Georgian Bay, and then from Grand Bend to the Saugeen shores off of Lake Huron.
The worst impacts will be largely in the snowbelts and across northern Ontario, where travel will be locally challenging.
“Snow squalls cause weather conditions to vary considerably; changes from clear skies to heavy snow within just a few kilometres are common,” says ECCC in the snow squall warning. “Rapidly accumulating snow could make travel difficult over some locations.”
Baron – Tuesday winds in Ontario – Jan14
Winds will also be gusty, with gusts upwards to 50 km/h on Tuesday before easing by the evening. Gusts between 20-40 km/h are forecast through the day on Wednesday.
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The lake-effect snow will gradually taper in intensity through the day on Wednesday, ahead of a weak clipper system that will track across the south, bringing some light snow and a gusty wind on Thursday. A dusting to 3 cm of snow is expected across the GTA with this clipper.
Brief weekend warm-up before temperatures plummet again
Temperatures will be much milder for Friday and Saturday, reaching at least 0°C across the region. Rain and snow showers are possible Friday night and Saturday, along and ahead of a cold front, which will track in later Saturday night. Frigid Arctic air is expected for Sunday and most of next week, with the coldest conditions of the season, which could include minus double digit high temperatures for a couple days, and wind chills in the minus 20s and possibly minus 30s.
Colder than normal temperatures are expected to continue into the final week of January. As we approach the beginning of February and progress through the first half of the month, much milder air will surge north into the eastern U.S. and attempt to push north of the border into the region. This will bring a milder pattern, but it is too early to know whether this will actually bring an extended period of early spring-like weather, or if this will bring messy storms with an active storm track across the region.
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