So far, Florida is the only state in the contiguous United States this winter that hasn’t had any snowfall despite seeing some of the coldest temperatures in years.
The chance of snow now exists thanks to a slate of winter storms forming across the central and eastern U.S. through the weekend.
The National Weather Service Mobile/Pensacola office stated that a “wintry mix,” which is a mix of rain, sleet and snow, is possible when precipitation returns closer to Tuesday in its latest area forecast discussion.
European and Canadian global models also show a very small (10%-20%) chance of snow in a diagonal sliver that runs across the very northern bits of Escambia, Santa Rosa, Okaloosa, Walton and the tiniest bit of Holmes counties in Florida.
The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast model shows a slim (10-20%) chance of snow in the Florida Panhandle
Snowfall in Florida might be up in the air, but rain certainly isn’t. The western Florida Panhandle will see significant rain and possible thunderstorms from Friday night through Saturday evening, according to AccuWeather.
Winter storms will bring heavy rainfall to the Florida Panhandle
Rain showers with embedded thunderstorms are expected to roll into the Pensacola area Friday night through Saturday morning. Temperatures will be above normal, so don’t expect any snow on either day, according to the National Weather Service.
AccuWeather reports that the first of two eastern storms will bring heavy downpours through most of the western Florida Panhandle, from Pensacola to Holmes County.
Heavy rain and thunderstorms are forecast in the Florida Panhandle through the end of the week.
The coldest air of the season will hit Florida Sunday night
The timeline for when Florida will get hit with subfreezing temperatures has sped up, with temperatures dipping into the upper 20s Sunday night.
Frigid air from the oncoming cold front will stick around longer than first anticipated, too. AccuWeather’s long-range forecast shows low temperatures below freezing through Thursday in the Panhandle, which will see the coldest temperatures.
Eastern areas of Florida that typically get hit by these polar airs won’t feel the same effects. Jacksonville’s coldest night will be on Sunday, with a low of 38 degrees. Lows will hover in the low-40s throughout the week before dropping into the upper 30s on Thursday.
Central Florida will see a roller coaster of temperatures through the weekend and next week. Saturday will get as warm as 78 degrees before dropping more than 20 degrees on Monday, which has a forecasted high of 56. Then temperatures jump up into the mid-60s throughout the rest of the week.
South Florida will remain relatively warm, staying in the 70s throughout the week.
When could Pensacola see snow?
Forecasters will have a more confident idea of the probability that Florida could see snow by Friday. Based on current information, the Florida Panhandle’s best chance at snow is between Tuesday and Thursday.
Low temperatures will be just below freezing and the chance of precipitation gradually rises throughout the week. Of course, cold air and a little moisture aren’t the only factors in play that result in snow.
Why is snow so rare in Florida?
The most basic answer is that subfreezing temperatures in Florida tend to be brought on by cold fronts, which generally produce dry air.
Florida’s best chance of seeing snow happens when a storm pulls in moisture from the Gulf of Mexico while cold air is being pushed from the north. Of course, if cold air is moving south, it’s likely pushing that moisture away from Florida, hence the conundrum.
The more complicated reason snow is rare in Florida is why the above scenario is such a necessity.
Almost everything about Florida, from its geographical features to its proximity to the equator, discourages the conditions needed for snow.
Florida’s warm temperatures are the first problem. The second issue is that Florida, the Sunshine State, gets a lot of sunlight because of how close it is to the equator. That sunlight and warmer temperatures tend to keep sustained cold air at bay, preventing it from amassing in quantities for snow to form.
Florida is also a pretty flat state, and its highest point, Britton Hill, is only about 345 feet above sea level. That doesn’t give cold air a lot of places to hang out.
Lastly, there’s the Gulf of Mexico. The Gulf is a relatively warm body of water, and it acts as a large temperature moderator for Florida.
What’s needed for snow to form?
The conditions required to produce snow are typically generalized. Most people know that it needs to be at or below 32 degrees, which is considered the threshold for water to freeze. That’s not the only condition where snow can form, however.
Snow can still form even in temperatures as high as 33.8 degrees. There are occasions when a higher layer of atmosphere is slightly above freezing where the snowflake might start to melt as it passes through that layer but can still make it to the ground as snow.
Another special case is referred to as the “wet bulb” effect. The wet bulb temperature is the temperature air reaches when water evaporates into it. Snow can still manage to form if the height where the wet bulb temperature reaches freezing is less than 1,500 above the ground.
In both special circumstances, the snow will be wetter and stickier than traditional fluffy and dry snow.
This article originally appeared on Pensacola News Journal: NWS: Wintry mix of rain, sleet, snow possible in Florida Panhandle