Tennessee has already seen plenty of cold weather in December, and as we march toward the first official day of winter we can expect some more. But just don’t expect a white Christmas.
Federal forecasters predicted early on that most of the southern half of the USA – from southern California to the Carolinas – should see less rain and snow than usual this winter. And that includes on Christmas Day.
Through the rest of December into January and February 2025, Tennesseans can expect above normal temperatures and precipitation, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. The forecast predicts a 33-40% chance of above average temperatures for much of the state and a 33-40% chance of above average precipitation for some areas of the region.
Here’s a deeper look at what to expect weather-wise as we start winter and into the holidays.
Seasonal temperature outlook for the United States as we head into 2025.
When is the first day of winter 2024?
The first day of winter is Saturday, Dec. 21. 2024.
Meteorologically, winter started Dec. 1. But many recognize the winter solstice on Dec. 21, as the first true day of winter in the northern hemisphere. This Saturday also happens to be the shortest day and the longest night of the year in the Northern Hemisphere, according to the Farmer’s Almanac.
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Christmas Day weather forecast for Tennessee
Christmas is still days away, but the predictions from the National Weather Service don’t look favorable to a white Christmas in the Volunteer State.
Much of West and Middle Tennessee is forecast to see highs in the upper 50s and maybe even hit 60 in some places with a less than 50% chance of rain. In the eastern part of the state though, there is a higher chance of showers with a high around 54 on Christmas. So unless a cold snap comes through, the chance of a white Christmas is pretty much out of the questions for the Volunteer State.
What is a La Niña? Will Tennessee experience one this winter?
La Niña refers to the periodic cooling of ocean surface temperatures in the central and east-central equatorial Pacific, according to the National Weather Service. And while this usually only happens every three to five years, it can sometimes occur on consecutive years.
The U.S. has a 74% chance of La Niña conditions, while there is a 40% chance of this being a moderate event, according to the latest forecast from the Climate Prediction Center.
During La Niña conditions, the South can usually expect warmer temperatures and less precipitation. While those further north can expect cooler temps and a stormy winter.
Will Tennessee see snow this winter?
People in East Tennessee have already seen some snow ahead of the first day of winter, but the mountains might be one of the few places in Tennessee to see snow this winter.
“This winter, temperatures will be up and snowfall down throughout most of the United States,” reports Carol Connare, the Farmers Almanac’s editor-in-chief. “While there will still be plenty of chilly temperatures and snow for most slopes, the high heating costs associated with the season shouldn’t hit so hard. We’re predicting a temperate, uneventful winter—potentially a welcome reprieve from the extremes of recent years.”
There can be exceptions to this of course as weather patterns change.
This article originally appeared on Nashville Tennessean: Will Tennessee have a white Christmas? Latest winter 2024 predictions